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May 2007 Archives

May 14, 2007

Navigating Alternative Energy Waves

The commentary I have seen on Ocean Power Technologies (OPTT) so far is way off base. I would summarize it as: "Ocean Power Technologies just did its IPO and the stock fell, showing it is too early to participate, especially since they need government subsidies to compete with oil."

Wrong, wrong and wrong.

Ocean Power did its IPO on the London AIM market three years ago. The U.S. offering on April 25 was a secondary offering. You can call it a "U.S. IPO" if you don't want to think globally, but the market had already established a valuation for the company, and it didn't drop 37% in one day due to any fundamental change in the outlook.

As for the "government subsidies," the cost of generating electricity from oil at $45 a barrel is about four cents a KwH. The cost of generating electricity from wavepower is 3.8 cents to four cents a KwH. The only other "alternative" energy technology that can generate electricity at four cents a KwH is onshore wind power, which is why utilities are willing to invest in wind farms. Guess what technology they are now starting to invest in, via pilot projects?

The Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Promotion Act of 2007, a bill introduced last week in the House, would provide $50 million in Federal funds for tidal and wavepower R&D starting in 2008, as well as tax and investment credits. Also last week, the proposed wave farm in Cornwall, England, was granted $142 million in funding to provide free energy to 7,500 homes. Ocean Power Technologies is one of the three companies chosen to participate. Although it will only meet 3% of Cornwall's electricity needs, this small demonstration project will make Cornwall a world leader in marine energy production, and focus attention on OPTT.

As Edward Gibbon said: "The wind and the waves are always on the side of the ablest navigators." Navigating your way through the nonsense surrounding alternative energy technologies isn't easy, especially with the hype around solar (25 cents a KwH), but I expect it to be very lucrative.

May 17, 2007

Duck Tales: Avian Flu

Recent scientific publications showed that the H5N1 avian flu virus is very, very close to a mutation that would make it easily transmittable from human to human. Researchers studying the mutations that led to the Spanish Flu virus were able to identify the "mutational distance" to be covered to get to easy human-to-human transmission, and it is much shorter than previously estimated.

I'm writing this in an office that I am currently sharing with four wild ducklings -- the mom duck and the other four ducklings disappeared a couple of days ago, most likely into a fox or coyote. But my four-year-old duck rescuer has little interest in hearing about bird flu, and like the Centers for Disease Control, my main line of defense is to hope it doesn't happen here. At least I'm no less prepared than they are.

Despite the Center for Disease Control's lack of preparation for an avian flu breakout, there is a company out there that's not sitting on its hands when it comes to fighting this deadly disease. BioCryst (BCRX) reported positive results in a mouse study, in which 40% to 60% of mice infected with H5N1 survived after one or two injections of peramivir -- their drug being developed to battle the bird flu. All the mice that received two shots the day they were infected, plus one a day for the next seven days, survived.

Due to the mild flu season in North America, the company will continue the Phase II trials for intramuscular peramivir in South America, Southeast Asia and Australia/New Zealand. Assuming all goes on schedule, they'll be able to start Phase III trials for the intramuscular version in the fourth quarter of this year. BCRX pointed out that a single shot of peramivir quickly enters the patient's systemic circulation, quickly achieves high concentrations in the plasma, and blankets the virus. That kicks the flu virus hard, and should make peramivir an attractive therapeutic option.

May 21, 2007

The Healing Abilities of Aloe Vera

An interesting article about the healing benefits of the natural medicine aloe vera: http://www.newstarget.com/z021858.html

May 23, 2007

Driving Internet Traffic

Harmonic (HLIT) did not get mentioned directly on Cisco's (CSCO) conference call, but Cisco CEO, John Chambers again said that video is driving network demand. He added that the growth of traffic generated by video will lead consumers to drive more Internet traffic this year than businesses for the first time ever. It is insights like this that make me thing Harmonic is going to have an excellent year, in spite of the disappointing gross profit margin in the March quarter.

May 28, 2007

Treating Juvenile Diabetes

Geron (GERN) said that researchers have been able to make human embryonic stem cells differentiate into clusters that secrete insulin in response to elevated sugar levels. The company thinks that it is feasible to produce therapeutic cells to treat Type 1 or juvenile diabetes, and they will now go on to animal tests.

If you need an example of "hero" just talk to a kid who has been waking up in the middle of the night from the age of one (or less) to have a finger pricked, blood tested and an insulin injection. It's also the last thing they do at night and the way they greet the day. I think "hero" can be expanded to include the parents, too. Stem cell therapy would be a great advancement in treating this disease.

About May 2007

This page contains all entries posted to New World Investor Blog in May 2007. They are listed from oldest to newest.

June 2007 is the next archive.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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