Recent scientific publications showed that the H5N1 avian flu virus is very, very close to a mutation that would make it easily transmittable from human to human. Researchers studying the mutations that led to the Spanish Flu virus were able to identify the "mutational distance" to be covered to get to easy human-to-human transmission, and it is much shorter than previously estimated.

I'm writing this in an office that I am currently sharing with four wild ducklings -- the mom duck and the other four ducklings disappeared a couple of days ago, most likely into a fox or coyote. But my four-year-old duck rescuer has little interest in hearing about bird flu, and like the Centers for Disease Control, my main line of defense is to hope it doesn't happen here. At least I'm no less prepared than they are.

Despite the Center for Disease Control's lack of preparation for an avian flu breakout, there is a company out there that's not sitting on its hands when it comes to fighting this deadly disease. BioCryst (BCRX) reported positive results in a mouse study, in which 40% to 60% of mice infected with H5N1 survived after one or two injections of peramivir -- their drug being developed to battle the bird flu. All the mice that received two shots the day they were infected, plus one a day for the next seven days, survived.

Due to the mild flu season in North America, the company will continue the Phase II trials for intramuscular peramivir in South America, Southeast Asia and Australia/New Zealand. Assuming all goes on schedule, they'll be able to start Phase III trials for the intramuscular version in the fourth quarter of this year. BCRX pointed out that a single shot of peramivir quickly enters the patient's systemic circulation, quickly achieves high concentrations in the plasma, and blankets the virus. That kicks the flu virus hard, and should make peramivir an attractive therapeutic option.