Amgen (AMGN) drug sales are outperforming Wall Street's too-conservative estimates by about 10%, according to industry prescription data. Since the last FDA panel review in March, Epogen June quarter sales are tracking for around $610 million, well over the $555 million that the Street expected. Aranesp sales are doing relatively better, and probably has $405 million for the quarter that ended Monday, versus the $350 million estimate. The company's third major drug, Enbrel, probably hit $817 million, a tad above the $805 million estimate. All this should translate into another nickel or so on the bottom line, so they should easily hit or beat the June quarter estimate of $1.02. For the year, the company should do $4.30 compared to the consensus for $4.20, and in 2009 I think they will hit $4.50 to $4.60 compared to the consensus for $4.45.

I expect their newest drug, Nplate, to be approved on the July 23 FDA deadline date, with a sizable launch in the second half of the year. In the second half we'll also see more data from the very successful, pivotal Phase III trial of denosumab for post-menopausal osteoporosis. At 11X earnings, AMGN is the cheapest major biotech stock, and we already know the next two drugs that will revitalize growth. Plus, the Aranesp/Epogen franchise will resume growth from its lower level, and we still have the real possibility that a shortage of donor blood forces doctors to ignore the Medicare reimbursement levels and prescribe more Aranesp or Epogen for anemic patients.