On Monday, I told my New World Investor subscribers after the market's close that investors seemed most worried about the lack of a solution for the problems at insurer AIG, although both Washington Mutual and Wachovia Bank also had people worried. But that's it for the poster children of the credit implosion. With Merrill Lynch being taken over by Bank of America and Lehman headed for liquidation, getting AIG, WaMu and Wachovia resolved should not take long.
Well, Tuesday night's $85 billion taxpayer-financed bailout of AIG resolved that one. Rumors are rife that WaMu has to find a buyer by Friday, or the FDIC will take them over after the close. That's two. Wachovia may not need to be sold or taken over because they wrote their ALT-A loans a bit differently, but even if there is only one big problem left after this amazing week, I think the market will call that a win.
The next major support level for the S&P 500 is 1152. So far, the market is telling us that it does not know the dimensions of the credit crisis and is not ready to go up, even though the Treasury and the Fed are cleaning up one huge problem after another. With the VIX Fear & Greed Index now well over 30, there is a huge amount of potential energy to push stocks higher once the turn comes. The VIX is now higher than it was at the previous bottom on July 15.
The safest path is to wait for a bounce at or above 1152, a successful retest, and then a breakout over 1210. If that happens this week, the weekly candlestick chart will just show a very long tail that undercuts a previous low-that's a very bullish configuration. These double bottoms are common.
So if the S&P can get down to or near 1152, and then close the week over 1210, the market will be telling you this is a massive buying opportunity.
